The 2029 Asteroid Threat

The end is nigh! Pack your things and … er … well … ah … erm … sit tight … for now …

In 2029 an asteroid called Apophis (named after the Ancient Egyptian god Apep (‘The Destroyer’)) will whizz past the Earth at a distance of approx 36,000 Km … or at least it should do.

One reason is the Yarkovsky effect. This describes what happens when an asteroid radiates energy absorbed from the Sun back into space. Releasing heat in one direction nudges the object in the opposite direction. The resulting acceleration is tiny, but over the centuries acts like a weak rocket and could make the difference between a hit or a miss in some circumstances.

But were such a rock to hit the planet, it could cause devastation on a country-wide scale, leading possibly to the deaths of many millions of people: An Apophis-like object striking at about 20km/s (45,000mph) would gouge a crater 5km (three miles) wide. Even standing 30km (18 miles) away from the impact site, a thermal blast would ignite your clothes and the ground would shudder with an earthquake measuring more than six on the Richter Scale. Rocks thrown up into the air by the impact would rain down – many of them huge lumps a metre wide.

At the moment, scientists stress Apophis is not thought to be a serious danger to Earth but will be keeping a close eye on its trajectory. They also believe that if it were necessary, they would be able to deflect it’s path sufficiently to avoid impact. Sounds like the movies Deep Impact or Armageddon to me.

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UK plan to track asteroid threat